A new analysis finds that unless we reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the global food system, which currently account for a third of man-made GHG emissions, action to protect the globe against the effects of climate change would fall short.
Beef and dairy consumption in rapidly developing countries, such as China and India, trigger the largest emission increase within food supply chains whilst emissions per head in developed countries with a high percentage of animal-based food declined.
By 2050, the world’s population is predicted to reach 9.1 billion people, and the UN (United Nations) estimates that an additional 70% of the present food demand will be required to feed everyone.
An international team of scientists, coordinated by the Universities of Groningen and Birmingham, report their findings in Nature Food today (15 June 2023) and predict that expanding global population and demand for food with a high carbon footprint will increase emissions.
“A global shift in diets, including reducing excessive intake of red meat and improving shares of plant-based protein will not only reduce emissions but avoid health risks such as obesity and cardiovascular disease” stated corresponding author, Prof. Klaus Hubacek from the University of Groningen.
Another corresponding author, Dr. Yuli Shan, from the University of Birmingham, commented: “The agrifood system drives global land use and agricultural activities contributing to around one-third of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Population growth, expansion of food production, and an increase in animal-based diets are likely to further increase emissions and squeeze the global carbon budget.”
A global shift in diets, including reducing excessive intake of red meat and improving shares of plant-based protein will not only reduce emissions but avoid health risks such as obesity and cardiovascular disease.
Professor Klaus Hubacek
The first author, Yanxian Li, a PhD student at the University of Groningen added that “Mitigating emissions at every stage of food supply chains from production to consumption is critical if we are to limit global warming. However, widespread and lasting diet shifts are very difficult to achieve quickly, so incentives that encourage consumers to reduce red meat or buy products with higher environmental dividends could help to reduce food emissions.”
Researchers analyzed data linking emissions to consumers between 2000 and 2019, revealing that in 2019, food consumption in the five highest emitting countries, China (2.0 Gt CO2-eq), India (1.3 Gt), Indonesia (1.1 Gt), Brazil (1.0 Gt) and the USA (1.0 Gt), was responsible for more than 40% of global food supply chain emission.
Annual global GHG emissions associated with food increased by 14% (2 Gt CO2-eq) over the 20-year period. The significant increase in the consumption of animal products, which made up about half of all food emissions, was responsible for around 95% of the rise in global emissions. Beef and dairy contributed 32% and 46% of the increase in global animal-based emissions.
Consumption of grains and oil crops is responsible for 43% (3.4 Gt CO2-eq in 2019) and 23% (1.9 Gt CO2-eq) of global plant-based emissions respectively, whilst rice contributes to over half of the global grain-related emissions (1.7 Gt CO2-eq), with Indonesia (20%), China (18%), and India (10%) being the top three contributors.
Soybean (0.6 Gt CO2-eq) and palm oil (0.9 Gt CO2-eq) have the largest shares in global emissions from oil crops with 30% and 46%, respectively. Indonesia, the world’s leading consumer of palm oil, has the largest emissions from palm oil (35% of the global total in 2019), followed by Southeast Asia (13%), Western Europe (10%), and China (9%).
The study reveals considerable differences regarding emission patterns and the reasons behind these trends classifiable as follows:
- Countries with high per capita food emission levels and dominant livestock emissions (mainly from red meat) (North America, Australia, Latin America & Caribbean);
- Developed countries that heavily rely on imports and outsource substantial amounts of food-related emissions (Japan and Europe);
- Rapidly developing countries with substantial emission increase driven by rapid population growth or improved living standards (China, South Asia, Near East & North Africa); and
- Countries with emission-intensive production, mainly with extensive land-use change activities (Brazil, Indonesia, and South and Central African regions).
The researchers also point out that a number of trade policies, such as the EU’s Green Deal, which encourages less intensive agriculture in Europe and increases imports of agricultural products from nations like Brazil, the United States, Indonesia, and Malaysia, are causing emissions to increase.
