A new study published today in Nature Food by the University of Sydney modeled the wide-ranging impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on Australia’s food systems and supply chains, identifying potential cascading repercussions such as job and income loss, as well as nutrient availability and diet quality loss.
The paper, led by Dr. Arunima Malik of the Integrated Sustainability Analysis group in the Faculty of Science and the School of Business, examined the effects of climate change on various sectors and regions in Australia. The researchers discovered that climate change and extreme weather events have an impact on all communities, with rural areas bearing the brunt of the damage.
The study also discovered that climatic events like cyclones, floods, bushfires, and heatwaves can have an impact on surrounding areas by limiting food availability and employment. Because of the complex interconnectivity of modern supply chains, the effects of these events may be felt in distant regions. The authors create an integrated modeling framework for tracing how food supply reductions affect non-food sectors such as transportation and services.
“Climate change has the potential to have a direct impact on our economy, livelihoods, and health. Extreme weather events can cause ripple effects across regions and industries, resulting in job and income losses as well as impacts on food availability” Dr. Malik, a lead author on the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, agreed.
Food supply disruptions can have a negative impact on diet quality by reducing the variety that contributes to a balanced diet and diverting diets to unhealthy processed foods with a longer shelf life. This disproportionately affects vulnerable groups, who lack the financial means to pay rising prices for scarce fresh foods.
Professor David Raubenheimer
“Our study has sought to model the indirect supply-chain repercussions of these events to bolster our understanding of interconnected supply chain networks and to promote climate preparedness,” she said.
Previous research undertaken by the Integrated Sustainability Analysis group has shown that a localized disaster (such as a cyclone in Queensland) can impact every other Australian state, resulting in losses across primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors.
“What plays out globally seems to play out locally as well. Everyone is affected by climate change, even if they’re not in areas directly hit by extreme weather, and the vulnerable are affected most,” said study co-author and Professor of Sustainability Research from the Faculty of Science Manfred Lenzen.
The modelling also found that such impacts could lead to localized food price increases and diminished food quality, with poor households faring worse than affluent counterparts even in the same area.
Professor David Raubenheimer of the Charles Perkins Centre, a co-author, stated: “Food supply disruptions can have a negative impact on diet quality by reducing the variety that contributes to a balanced diet and diverting diets to unhealthy processed foods with a longer shelf life. This disproportionately affects vulnerable groups, who lack the financial means to pay rising prices for scarce fresh foods.”
Dr Sinead Boylan, co-author and public health nutrition researcher at the Sydney Environment Institute: “This study shows that climate change may have an impact not only on food supply in NSW, but also on access to healthy and equitable diets, particularly among the most vulnerable populations. These findings may help to inform mitigation strategies to assist these communities in adapting.”
Impacts on food production would also lead to an impact on employment and income losses not just in the food supply chains, but also in the transportation and service sectors.
The research was based on a methodology which integrated a nutritional framework with regional supply chain impacts and employment and income loss models, providing a holistic view on the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events.
“Frameworks like this one could be used to help governments and other organizing bodies make decisions. It is critical that communities and organizations are aware of these consequences in order to encourage better mitigation planning and climate change resilience” Dr. Malik stated.
“The cascading effects of continued climate variability and more frequent extreme weather events not only disrupt supply chains, but may also result in zoonotic diseases, foodborne epidemics, and broad socio-demographic stresses, such as inter-regional migration and social unrest. It is critical that we comprehend these consequences in order to build a more resilient society” She stated.
