In a recent study, near-surface air temperatures for North-West Europe during the last 60 years were analyzed. The results indicate that the maximum temperature of the hottest days is rising at a rate that is twice as fast as the maximum temperature of summer days on average.
The findings show that decision-makers must act quickly to adapt critical infrastructure to the effects of climate change.
According to recent research conducted under the direction of the University of Oxford, North-West Europe’s hottest days are warming at a rate that is twice that of typical summer days. The difference in trends is most pronounced for England, Wales, and Northern France.
Concerningly, current climate models overestimate the rate at which the hottest days are warming in comparison to observations, although successfully predicting the rate of warming for average days.
According to lead researcher Dr. Matthew Patterson, from the University of Oxford’s Department of Physics, the results indicate that extreme heat events such as the UK’s record-breaking heatwave last summer are likely to become more regular.
Dr. Patterson said: “These findings underline the fact that the UK and neighbouring countries are already experiencing the effects of climate change and that last year’s heatwave was not a fluke. Policy makers urgently need to adapt their infrastructure and health systems to cope with the impacts of higher temperatures.”
For the study, published today in Geographical Research Letters, Dr. Patterson analysed data from the past 60 years (1960-2021) recording the maximum daily temperature, provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Understanding the warming rate of the hottest days will be important if we are to improve climate model simulation of extreme events and make accurate predictions about the future intensity of such events. If our models underestimate the rise in extreme temperatures over the coming decades, we will underestimate the impacts this will have.
Dr. Matthew Patterson
Although the highest temperature ever recorded fluctuated from year to year, the overall trend made it evident that North-West Europe’s hottest days had warmed at a rate twice as fast as typical summer days.
The average summer day in England and Wales grew by about 0.26°C every ten years, whereas the hottest day increased by about 0.58°C every ten years. However, other parts of the Northern Hemisphere did not experience this accelerated warming of the hottest days to the same degree.
It is yet unclear what is causing the hottest days to warm up more quickly than typical summer days. According to Dr. Patterson, this may be due to the hottest summer days in North-West Europe often being linked to hot air transported north from over Spain.
Spain is warming more quickly than North-West Europe, which means that air brought in from this region is getting more and more extreme in comparison to the normal air in that region.
For instance, a plume of hot air transported north from Spain and the Sahara was responsible for the hottest days of 2022. However, further research is needed to verify this.
Dr. Patterson added: “Understanding the warming rate of the hottest days will be important if we are to improve climate model simulation of extreme events and make accurate predictions about the future intensity of such events. If our models underestimate the rise in extreme temperatures over the coming decades, we will underestimate the impacts this will have.”
Extreme heat has detrimental effects on a variety of societal facets, including agriculture, energy and transportation infrastructure, and many more facets. Additionally, it strains health care by making disorders like respiratory and cardiovascular ailments worse.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) for failing to act quickly enough to adapt for the impacts of global heating has criticized the current UK Government. The urgency for policymakers to modify infrastructure and systems vulnerable to intense heat is increased by these new results.
