Researchers used modeling to predict the increasing frequency of mass die-offs as a result of climate change using data from more than 500 previous fish die-offs in lakes across Wisconsin and Michigan.
The frequency of fish die-offs, or mass mortality events, has increased as the planet’s climate has warmed. These die-offs can have serious consequences for ecosystem function, endanger existing fish populations, and reduce global food supply. And the frequency of these events appears to be increasing, with potentially disastrous consequences for the world if global carbon emissions are not significantly reduced by the end of the twenty-first century.
Those are the findings of a recent paper co-authored by two members of the University of Arkansas Department of Biological Sciences: doctoral student Simon Tye and associate professor Adam Siepielski, along with several of their colleagues.
The study, “Climate warming amplifies the frequency of fish mass mortality events across north temperate lakes,” compiled 526 documented cases of fish die-offs in Minnesota and Wisconsin lakes between 2003 and 2013. The researchers discovered three major causes of these events: infectious diseases, summerkills, and winterkills.
We think predictions from the water temperature model are more realistic, whereas predictions from the air temperature model indicate we need to better understand how and why regional air and water temperature estimates differ over time to predict how many mortality events may occur.
Simon Tye
The researchers then narrowed their focus to summerkills, or fish deaths caused by high temperatures. They discovered a strong relationship between local air and water temperatures and the occurrence of these events, implying that the frequency of these events increased as temperature increased. Furthermore, their models that used either air or water temperature produced similar results, which is significant because air temperature data is more widely available around the world than water temperature data.
Finally, with a historical baseline established, the team used air and water temperature-based models to predict frequencies of future summerkills.
The outcomes were sobering. The models predicted a six-fold increase in the frequency of fish mortality events by 2100 based on local water temperature projections, while local air temperature projections predicted a 34-fold increase. Importantly, these forecasts were based on temperature projections from the most severe climate change scenario, which was the only one with the data needed for these analyses.
“If there are eight summerkills now, the models suggest we could have about 41 per year based on water temperature estimates or about 182 per year based on air temperature estimates,” Tye explained.
“We think predictions from the water temperature model are more realistic, whereas predictions from the air temperature model indicate we need to better understand how and why regional air and water temperature estimates differ over time to predict how many mortality events may occur.”
Nevertheless, their models reveal strong associations between rising temperatures and frequencies of ecological catastrophes.
Despite the fact that the study used data from temperate northern lakes, Tye believes it is relevant to Arkansas. “One of the paper’s findings is that similar temperature deviations affect all types of fish, such that a regional heatwave could lead to the deaths of both cold- and warm-water fish,” he said.
“Specifically, climate change is more than gradually increasing temperatures because it also increases temperature variation, as we saw for much of this summer,” he said. “As a result, our findings suggest that these rapid temperature changes affect a wide range of fish, regardless of their thermal tolerance.”
Siepielski added, “This work is important because it demonstrates the feasibility of using readily obtainable data to anticipate fish die offs. As with many examples of how climate warming is negatively affecting wild animal populations, this work reveals that temperature extremes can be particularly detrimental.”
“The project’s large scale, with thousands of lakes and over a million air and temperature data points, is especially impressive,” Siepielski added. “Lakes outside the study area, including those in Arkansas and surrounding areas, are unlikely to be immune to the increasing frequency of these events.”
Siepielski urged Arkansans to contact the appropriate authorities if they find evidence of these events, even if it is on their own property.
