New research demonstrates that specific signals from human activities have altered the temperature structure of the Earth’s atmosphere and provides clear evidence of a human “fingerprint” on climate change.
Contrasts among tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature patterns have for some time been perceived as a unique finger impression of human consequences for the environment. This unique mark, notwithstanding, dismissed data from the mid- to upper stratosphere, 25 to 50 kilometers above the world’s surface.
“By including this information, a human fingerprint’s detectability is increased by a factor of five.” Improved perceptibility happens on the grounds that the mid- to upper stratosphere has a huge cooling signal from human-caused CO2 increments, little commotion levels of regular inner fluctuation, and varying sign and clamor designs,” as per the diary article, “Uncommon stratospheric commitment to human fingerprints on climatic temperature,” distributed in the Procedures of the Public Foundation of Sciences (PNAS).
“Because the world has been reeling from climate change, being as certain as possible about the role of carbon dioxide is critical.”
Co-author Susan Solomon, Martin Professor of Environmental Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The weather on a daily basis, interannual variability brought on by El Nios and La Nias, and longer-term natural climate fluctuations are all examples of tropospheric noise. In the upper stratosphere, the commotion of fluctuation is more modest, and the human-caused environmental change signal is bigger, so the sign can be considerably more easily recognized.
According to the paper, it is now virtually impossible for natural causes to explain satellite-measured trends in the thermal structure of the Earth’s atmosphere because fingerprinting has been extended to the upper stratosphere with long temperature records and improved climate models.
Lead author Benjamin Santer, an adjunct scientist in the Physical Oceanography Department at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI) in Massachusetts, said, “This is the clearest evidence there is of a human-caused climate change signal associated with CO2 increases.”
“This research challenges and refutes claims that recent changes in surface and atmospheric temperature are natural, whether caused by the sun or internal climate system cycles.” Regarding the subject at hand, it is nearly impossible to find a natural explanation: changes in the structure of atmospheric temperature,” Santer, who has been working on climate fingerprinting for more than 30 years, added. This exploration settles mistaken claims that we don’t have to treat environmental change genuinely in light of the fact that it is all normal.”
Suki Manabe and Richard Wetherald used a straightforward climate model in 1967 to investigate how CO2 from burning fossil fuels might alter atmospheric temperature, which served as the impetus for the current study.
One very distinct feature was discovered by their modeling: an expansion in CO2 levels prompted more catching of intensity in the lower atmosphere (the most minimal layer of Earth’s environment) and less intensity getting away from higher up into the stratosphere (the layer over the lower atmosphere), in this way warming the lower atmosphere and cooling the stratosphere. This prediction of tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling in response to rising CO2 has been confirmed numerous times by more complex models and verified by comparing model output to global-mean atmospheric temperature data from satellites and weather balloons.
In spite of the fact that these earlier studies took into account changes in the global mean temperature in the middle and upper stratosphere, which are approximately 25 to 50 kilometers above the surface of the Earth, they did not examine specific patterns of climate change in this layer. With improved simulations and satellite data, this region can now be studied more thoroughly. The new examination is quick to look for human-caused environmental change designs — likewise called “fingerprints”—in the center and upper stratosphere.
“The large and distinct human fingerprints in temperature changes in the mid-to-upper stratosphere caused by increases in CO2 are truly exceptional because they are distinct from temperature changes there caused by internal variability and natural external forcing.” Co-author Qiang Fu, a professor in the University of Washington’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences, said, “These unique fingerprints make it possible to detect the human impact on climate change due to CO2 in a short period of time with high confidence,” which is between 10 and 15 years.
Susan Solomon, co-author and Martin Professor of Environmental Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, stated, “Being as confident as possible of the role of carbon dioxide is critical.” The way that perceptions show a warming lower atmosphere as well as an emphatically cooling upper stratosphere is exceptional, obvious proof that nails the prevailing job of carbon dioxide in environmental change and significantly increments certainty.”
Santer stated that while it is intellectually satisfying to be able to extend fingerprinting higher into the atmosphere to test Manabe and Wetherald’s prediction, it is also extremely concerning.
“These results make me very concerned as someone who tries to comprehend the kind of world that will be inhabited by future generations. There is no joy in recognizing that we are fundamentally changing the thermal structure of the Earth’s atmosphere,” Santer stated.
Santer added, “This study demonstrates that the real world has changed in a way that simply cannot be explained by natural causes.” Globally and in the United States, crucial decisions regarding climate change are at hand. I trust those choices depend on our best logical comprehension of the truth and earnestness of human consequences for the environment.”
More information: Benjamin D. Santer et al, Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2023). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2300758120
