According to new research, crop production disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is expected to increase carbon emissions and food prices globally while not alleviating food insecurity. Crop production disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is expected to increase carbon emissions and food prices globally, without alleviating food insecurity.
Jerome Dumortier, associate professor in the O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs at IUPUI, and his co-authors used economic simulation models to predict the short- and long-term effects of the war on climate change, crop prices, and food shortages in new research published this week.
Our research shows while this will continue to impact the global supply chain, the effects on food shortages won’t be as bad as we initially thought. Much of that is because other countries have started to produce those crops and exports to make up for what Ukraine has not been sending out.
Jerome Dumortier
According to the study, the war’s impact on crop production and exports in Ukraine and Russia will continue to raise global food prices and food insecurity, but not as much as previously predicted, owing to increased production in other countries. According to researchers, corn and wheat prices could rise by up to 4.6% and 7.2%, respectively. They also considered crop prices such as barley, rice, soybeans, sunflower, and wheat, which are expected to rise.
Nations already facing significant food insecurity will be impacted most, they predict.
“There was a lot of worry about food insecurity globally when the war first started in Ukraine,” Dumortier said. “Our research shows while this will continue to impact the global supply chain, the effects on food shortages won’t be as bad as we initially thought. Much of that is because other countries have started to produce those crops and exports to make up for what Ukraine has not been sending out.”
However, filling that production gap will take a toll on the global climate, Dumortier said. Other countries, such as Brazil, might clear land and vegetation to plant more crops to make up for slowed production and exports from the war.
The study found that Brazil is increasing its corn production to compensate for Ukraine’s drop in corn exports. Researchers found that the change in land use across the globe will have a significant environmental impact, as other countries increase carbon emissions from land-use change and contribute more to deforestation.
“The Russia-Ukraine grain agreement over the summer was a positive development, but the situation in Ukraine is uncertain,” Dumortier said. “We suggest governments consider policies that help vulnerable populations, like domestic food subsidies and the reduction or elimination of trade restrictions. The effect of future climate change could also be mitigated by unrestricted trade, which could allow a shift of comparative advantage across countries.”
